Energy diversification, decarbonization, and cost reduction in the Brazilian industry: estimates of possible scenarios 

Authors
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47456/bjpe.v12i3.51065
Keywords:
Sustainability, Mitigation, Greenhouse Effect, Computational Methods
Abstract

This research aimed to assess how changes in the relative share of energy sources in the Brazilian industry's energy balance can impact total spending on electricity purchases and fuel consumption in this important economic segment. Based on data collected from the Energy Research Company (EPE) and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), simulations and analyses were performed using machine learning techniques based on multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks (MLP-ANN), supported by the random sampling with replacement method (bootstrap). The results allowed the evaluation of 12 industrial energy mix diversification scenarios, developed from models using 16 historical observations (2007-2022) and bootstrap resampling of up to 1,000 simulated observations, identifying alternatives capable of reducing energy costs in a context in which these expenditures showed a cumulative increase of 379% over the analyzed period.

Author Biographies
  1. Carlos Roberto Souza Carmo, Federal University of Uberlândia

    Doutor em Agronomia com ênfase em Energia na Agricultura pela Universidade Estadual Paulista "Júlio de Mesquita Filho" (UNESP) (2020). Pós-doutorado em "Modelagem e Simulação do Impacto das Alterações na Matriz Energética Brasileira sobre Emissões de Carbono e Custos da Indústria Via Redes Neurais Artificiais", pela Universidade de São Paulo (USP) (2024). Mestre em Ciências Contábeis pela Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo (PUC-SP) (2008). Especialização em Ciência de Dados e Big Data Analytics (2024). Especialização em Data Mining (2024). Especialização em Análise e Desenvolvimento de Sistemas em Python (2023). MBA em Controladoria e Finanças (2001). Bacharel em Ciências Contábeis (1999). Professor adjunto da Faculdade de Ciências Contábeis da Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (FACIC-UFU). Tem experiência nas áreas de Ciências Contábeis, Métodos Quantitativos Aplicados e Educação. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3806-9228

  2. Murilo Miceno Frigo, Instituto Federal de Educação Ciência e Tecnologia do Mato Grosso do Sul

    raduado em engenharia elétrica pela Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul (2010). Mestrado em Engenharia Elétrica pela UFMS (2013), área de pesquisa : Energia, Planejamento, Operação e Controle de Sistemas Elétricos. Atualmente professor EBTT no Instituto Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul (IFMS) nos cursos de Técnico em Eletrotécnica e Tecnologia de Automação Industrial. Foi professor do Curso de Engenharia Elétrica Universidade Federal do Tocantins - UFT (2013-2016). Desenvolve pesquisa e extensão nas áreas de gestão e eficiência energética, fontes alternativas de energia e educação aplicada ao ensino profissional e tecnológico. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2499-7592

     
  3. Fernando de Lima Caneppele, University of São Paulo

    Prof. Dr. Fernando de Lima Caneppele é Professor Associado III na Universidade de São Paulo (USP), Campus de Pirassununga, Pesquisador do GEPEA Poli USP, Pesquisador Associado do GESEL UFRJ e foi Pesquisador do Instituto de Estudos Avançados (IEA/USP) no período de 2024-2025. Engenheiro eletricista com mestrado, doutorado, pós-doutorado e livre-docência na área energética, atua com foco em Energia de forma nexialista e é especialista em Transição Energética e no Objetivo de Desenvolvimento Sustentável 7 (ODS7). Sua trajetória acadêmica e profissional é dedicada ao setor energético, contribuindo para pesquisas, ensino, extensão, divulgação científica, treinamentos e consultorias. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4498-8682

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Cover Image
Photograph of a worker wearing a white hard hat, safety glasses, and a fluorescent green safety vest, walking through an area with large solar panels in the background. The image displays the title “Energy, Artificial Intelligence and Industry” and the identification “Carmo, Frigo & Caneppelle (2026)”. At the bottom are the logos of PPGCP, UFES, Campus São Mateus, the Research Center for Production Systems Management (NP GSP), Production Engineering, and FAPES, along with the identification “Brazilian Journal of Production Engineering”.
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Published
2026-09-15
Issue
Vol. 12 No. 3 (2026): Regular Issue (July - September) Continuous Publication of Articles
Section
ENERGY
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Copyright (c) 2026 Carmo, C. R. S., Frigo, M. M., & Caneppele, F. de L.

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How to Cite

Carmo, C. R. S., Frigo, M. M., & Caneppele, F. de L. (2026). Energy diversification, decarbonization, and cost reduction in the Brazilian industry: estimates of possible scenarios . Brazilian Journal of Production Engineering, 12(3), 65-77. https://doi.org/10.47456/bjpe.v12i3.51065